The Bank of Spain maintains a growth forecast of 2.6% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, but raises its inflation forecasts due to energy and service prices.
According to iberoeconomia.es, the Bank of Spain expects Spain's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2.6% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. These are the projections published by the institution on October 9, which revise growth upwards compared to those from June.
The improvement is supported by private consumption, job creation, and population growth. At the same time, the Bank of Spain raises its inflation estimates due to tensions in energy markets and the persistence of price pressures on services.
According to the institution's scenario, harmonised inflation will average 3.9% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027. The average unemployment rate will decrease to 10% in 2026 and 9.7% in 2027, while employment measured in people will grow by 2% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.
Regarding the public administrations' deficit, the Bank of Spain estimates it will be 2.6% of GDP in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. The institution emphasises that these are forecasts, not definitive results, and that they could change if the international scenario, energy prices, or consumption and investment behaviour vary.
The GDP measures the production of goods and services, not the disposable income of each household. Therefore, growth and purchasing power must be analysed together, taking into account the quality of employment and the evolution of real wages.
Energy is, according to the report, one of the main risks. Between May 21 and September 24, the price of oil rose by 4% and natural gas by 52%. The Bank of Spain warns that this increase may be passed on to general inflation and production costs.
The impact will depend on the duration of the rise and the ability of companies and households to adapt. If energy costs remain high, some companies may reduce margins, postpone investments, or pass part of the cost onto the consumer.
For SMEs, the combination of high energy prices, wages, rents, and financing can be particularly demanding, although domestic demand continues to grow. The Bank of Spain expects employment to continue increasing in 2027, albeit at a slightly more moderate pace.
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