The Hispalink university network predicts that Castilla y León will lead Spain's economic growth in 2027 and 2028, with GDP growth of 2.7% and 2.1%, respectively. Industry will be the main driver, while agriculture will suffer a 10.3% decline in 2026.
Castilla y León will be at the forefront of economic growth in Spain in 2027 and 2028, according to the latest forecast report from the Hispalink Network, as reported by the Ical agency through tribunazamora.com. The study positions the region as having the best prospects for GDP evolution in those two years, despite a context marked by commercial difficulties and geopolitical tensions.
Estimates suggest that the economy of Castilla y León will grow by 2.8% in 2026, moderating its advance to 2.7% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Although the pace will gradually lose strength, the figures would exceed those forecasted for Spain as a whole, where growth is expected to be 2.7%, 2.1%, and 1.6%, respectively.
The performance of the region will be uneven depending on the economic activity. Industry appears as the main growth driver, while the agricultural sector faces a challenging year and construction prepares for a more prolonged slowdown.
The industrial sector will be one of the major protagonists of Hispalink's forecasts. The university network estimates that its activity will increase by 6.2% in 2026, compared to 4.5% estimated for the national average. Within this sector, industrial products are expected to grow by 6.4%, while energy activity will advance by 4.9%. Industrial dynamism will also be maintained in the following years, with a projected increase of 4.7% in 2027 for the manufacturing sector and 4.3% in 2028. This evolution is crucial to sustain the overall regional economy, especially in light of the difficulties faced by the agricultural sector. According to the report, non-agricultural activity will provide enough momentum to offset the decline in the primary sector.
The other side of the economic forecasts lies in agriculture and livestock. Hispalink estimates that the gross added value of the agricultural sector will fall by 10.3% in 2026, mainly due to poor cereal production results, one of the most significant crops in Castilla y León. The report describes the campaign as an especially negative agricultural year and warns that regional economic growth will largely depend on the performance of other activities. However, medium-term prospects for the agricultural sector improve: forecasts indicate a recovery of 2.3% in 2027 and 2.9% in 2028, which would place Castilla y León among the communities with the most favourable evolution of the primary sector during those years.
Construction will also be one of the activities that will feel the loss of momentum. Hispalink estimates it will grow by 2.4% in 2026, below the 3.5% expected for Spain and nearly two points less than the rate attributed to 2025. This trend will continue in the coming years, with advances of 1.8% in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028. Among the factors explaining this evolution are the potential exhaustion of the current housing sales cycle and the completion of many public works linked to European funds.
Services, for their part, will grow by 2.9% in 2026, two-tenths less than the previous year. Commercial activity and other market services will help sustain the sector, partially offsetting the lower growth of non-market services. For 2027, Hispalink forecasts a moderation to 2.1%, in line with the national average. In 2028, growth would reduce to 1.3%, confirming a gradual loss of speed in this area of activity as well.
The forecasts position Castilla y León prominently within the Spanish economic map. In 2026, the region would grow by 2.8%, a result that would place it in fifth position nationally, behind Madrid, Murcia, and the Balearic Islands, with 3%, and the Valencian Community and Andalusia, with 2.9%. The change would come in 2027, when the projected advance of 2.7% would surpass that of the Balearic Islands and Madrid, both at 2.3%. In 2028, Castilla y León would maintain the top position with a growth of 2.1%, compared to 2% for Madrid and 1.9% for Murcia.
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