The Italian asset manager believes that the electoral advance to November 29 has a low cost and can unlock the institutional situation. Senior economist Martin Wolburg warns that the main risk is a new parliamentary blockage.
The announcement by the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, to bring forward the general elections to November 29 has led Generali Investments to raise five key questions about the economic and political impact of the call. The Italian manager, as reported by Bolsamanía, maintains that, overall, the advance is "moderately positive" for Spain.
The firm's senior economist, Martin Wolburg, argues that the current Parliament "had practically stopped functioning" and that the Government had not approved new State Budgets since 2023. "Bringing the elections forward from summer 2027 by a few months has a low cost and offers an opportunity to end the institutional blockage," he states.
"Elections could be helpful, but only if voters grant a clear majority"
Regarding political uncertainty, Wolburg points out that the elections could only resolve it if a clear majority is granted. Current polls, he notes, suggest that PP and Vox would secure a comfortable majority above the 176 seats needed. A majority government could approve the first new State Budgets since 2023.
However, the economist warns that "recent experience shows that fragmented parliaments generate political uncertainty and slow down fiscal consolidation." In his view, "the main risk is a new institutional blockage, not the expansive measures prior to the elections."
On housing matters, Wolburg believes that the problem will not be automatically resolved with the elections, regardless of who wins. He recalls that the two housing decrees proposed by Sánchez's Government failed because Junts aligned with PP and Vox, adding that "voters still do not show clear confidence in any party to manage this issue."
The electoral call, therefore, opens a scenario of uncertainty that the markets will closely monitor. The date for the polls will be November 29, and the outcome will determine the formation of a new Executive and the possibility of approving a Budget that unlocks the institutional situation.
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