The president of the ECB justifies the increase in the cost of money by the 4.9% of the Spanish CPI and the energy risks. The ECB estimates that AI will raise productivity by between 0.3% and 0.4% in ten years.
The president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, has defended the recent increase in interest rates to 2.5% as a "measured response appropriate to keep inflation under control." She made this statement during a press conference in Brussels, as reported by noticiastrabajo.es, citing the rise in prices particularly affecting fuels, food, and electricity.
Lagarde framed this decision within the "intermediate path of monetary policy" she presented at the beginning of the year. In her speech, she warned that the inflation shock is "too large to ignore," but insisted that the response must be proportionate to avoid deviating from the goal of price stability.
"This means that we continue on the intermediate path of monetary policy that I presented at the beginning of this year, and while the shock is too large to ignore, we believe that the response we must give should be measured and appropriate to keep it under control."
The ECB's analysis points to a higher increase in 2027 and another in 2028, although the institution does not see signs that "this trend is solidifying," Lagarde noted.
The president of the ECB explained that growth has been "solid," but that monetary tightening and rising long-term rates will slow the economy and reduce the transmission of benefits. Regarding energy crises, she set the central bank's strategy: not to react to energy prices unless there are risks that this cost will consolidate into more inflation.
"In the face of these energy crises, the ECB has a clear strategy, which is not to react to energy prices but to act when there are risks that this cost will consolidate into more inflation."
Lagarde identified uncertainty as one of the most prominent factors in the eurozone, with risks "upward for inflation and downward for economic growth." Among the causes, she mentioned the conflict in the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz paralysed, and the rising cost of energy globally.
On the positive side, she cited the labour market, consumption, productivity, business investment, and exports, against a backdrop of stagnant wage increases amid rising inflation.
The president of the ECB also addressed the impact of Artificial Intelligence on the economy. Initial data from the central bank estimates that productivity will improve by between 0.3% and 0.4% over the next ten years thanks to this technology, figures that are "less optimistic than those coming from the US but are still quite high."
"To fully harness the potential of AI, substantial investment is needed, and Europe must undertake this but also invest in computing capacity, data centres, and energy. Companies must also train their employees and adapt their production models because AI-related investment is increasing in Europe and there are more projects underway for companies… but we are still behind the United States."
Lagarde called for the adoption of AI to "be understood beyond a small group of tech leaders," as mere diffusion is not enough: companies must use it effectively and deeply. To this end, she deemed it necessary to support retraining programmes that address the skills gap surrounding this technology and ensure that the workforce adapts to change.
The press conference comes after the Spanish CPI surged to 4.9% in September, six tenths higher than in August, according to the INE, a figure that broke forecasts. The ECB will continue to monitor the evolution of prices and employment before making new decisions on interest rates.
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