The IMF projects that Spain will achieve eleven consecutive years of growth above the Eurozone until 2031, with unemployment dropping to 9.8% in 2026 and nearing 10% by the end of the period.
The Spanish economy will maintain a growth rate higher than that of the Eurozone at least until 2031, according to long-term projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported by valenciaplaza.com. The organisation anticipates that Spain will achieve eleven consecutive years ahead of the Eurozone average, although the gap will narrow and unemployment will not fall below around 10%.
The Spanish GDP grew by 2.6% in 2025, more than double the 1.2% of the Eurozone. For this year, the IMF forecasts a slowdown to 2.5%, compared to 1.1% for the Eurozone, and in 2027 the growth will moderate to 1.8% in Spain and 1.2% in the Eurozone.
From 2028, projections place Spanish growth at 1.8% and 1.7% for each of the next three years until 2031. The Eurozone, on the other hand, will grow by 1.3% in 2028, 1.2% in 2029, and 1.1% in 2030 and 2031.
In terms of prices, the IMF estimates an average inflation of 3.7% in Spain this year, above the 3.1% of the Eurozone. In 2027, the increase will moderate to 2.7% in Spain, one-tenth lower than the Eurozone average. By 2028, the Spanish rate would be 2.5%, three-tenths above the Eurozone, and from there both economies will hover around 2% annually.
The labour market is the weak point of the projection. The Spanish unemployment rate will drop to 9.8% in 2026 from 10.5% in 2025, but will stagnate at that level in 2027 and rise to 9.9% in the following two years, returning to around 10% in the last years of the forecast period. The Eurozone, for its part, will gradually reduce its unemployment to close the period below 6%.
The IMF expects Spain to continue creating jobs: the number of employed will reach 22.6 million in 2026 and 22.7 million in 2027.
In public accounts, the Spanish deficit will close this year at 2.4% of GDP, in line with the previous year and far from the 10% recorded in 2020. The projection includes a gradual reduction to 2.3% in 2027, 2.2% in the following two years, and around 2.1% in 2031.
Public debt will fall below 100% of GDP this year for the first time since 2019, to 97.6%, and will continue to decrease each year until it reaches 89.4% in 2031, the lowest ratio since 2012.
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