The Bank of Spain's survey shows that the negative impact of the conflict in Iran on investment and demand decreased in the third quarter of 2026. Energy costs remain the main limiting factor for 63.2% of companies.
The Bank of Spain has published the results of its Business Activity Survey (EBAE) for the third quarter of 2026, reflecting a moderation in the perception of the impact of the conflict in Iran on the activities of Spanish companies. According to the agency, the proportion of companies indicating a negative effect of the situation in Iran on international demand has fallen to 27.8%, down from 30.3% in the previous quarter. In terms of domestic demand, the percentage has decreased from 36.5% to 33.7%.
The uncertainty generated by the conflict is also weighing less on investment decisions: 40.9% of companies state that the situation in Iran negatively affects their investment plans, compared to 43.2% three months ago. This improvement in expectations occurs in a context of slight recovery in billing and employment, according to information published by diarioenpositivo.com.
Regarding billing in the third quarter, the survey detects a decline compared to the previous quarter due to seasonality, although once adjusted for these effects, revenues show a slight improvement. By sector, hospitality, information and communications, and administrative activities recorded increases, while agriculture, professional, scientific and technical activities, and leisure suffered more pronounced declines.
Employment also grew slightly in gross terms, although the seasonally adjusted series reflects a decrease, smaller than that of the second quarter. Occupation increased in administrative activities, hospitality, and information and communications, while it decreased in agriculture, real estate, and commerce. Investment, for its part, tends to stabilise after previous fluctuations.
Regarding costs, the conflict in Iran continues to influence through energy markets, but the pressure has moderated. The costs of intermediate consumption continue to rise, although at a slower pace, and companies expect input costs to continue increasing over the next twelve months at a similar intensity to previous quarters. These higher expenses are partially passed on to selling prices, which continue to rise but more moderately. Hospitality, commerce, and transport are the sectors that have increased their prices the most.
Energy costs remain the main limiting factor for business activity, affecting 63.2% of companies, 1.4 percentage points more than in the previous quarter, although still below the level reached after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, which approached 80%. Uncertainty about economic policy affects 57.6% of companies, 4.4 points less, while the availability of labour remains stable, at 43.1%.
Difficulties in accessing financing have increased: the percentage of companies citing this as a limitation rose by 5.4 points to 18.2%, with a more pronounced impact on larger companies. Interest expenses on debt also grew by 2.5 points to 26.8%, particularly affecting SMEs. Supply issues from suppliers, on the other hand, lost relevance, dropping by 2 points to 13.6%.
Looking ahead to the last quarter of 2026, business forecasts point to a slight improvement in investment expectations, partly driven by the lower perception of the negative impact of the conflict in Iran. Nearly half of companies expect an increase in their billing in a year, a third anticipate stability, and a minority foresee a decline.
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