The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the Spanish economy will grow by 2.5% in 2026, four tenths higher than its previous estimate. For the eurozone, the organisation estimates a potential growth of only 1.1% in the medium term.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth forecast for the Spanish economy to 2.5% for 2026, four tenths above the previous estimate. According to information published by Mundiario, the organisation led by Kristalina Georgieva maintains a more cautious diagnosis for the whole of Europe.
The IMF estimates that the GDP of the eurozone will grow by 1.1% in 2026, two tenths more than previously forecast in June. This figure follows a growth of 1.5% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2024. For Germany, the organisation forecasts 1.3%; for Italy, 0.8%; and for France, 0.4%.
In the medium term, the potential growth of the eurozone would remain around 1.1%, compared to 1.3% estimated for the whole of the European Union. According to the organisation, the region would continue to advance at a slow pace even if some of the current threats disappeared.
General inflation approached 4% in September, driven by rising gas, electricity, and fuel prices. The IMF forecasts an average rate of 3.1% for 2026 and 2.8% for 2027. The return to levels close to the target of the European Central Bank (ECB) would be delayed until 2028, when average inflation would stand at 2.2%.
Core inflation offers a more favourable reading, with forecasts of 2.2% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027. The risk, according to the report, is that rising energy costs could extend to other products and services, which would reduce households' purchasing power.
In terms of productivity, the organisation places Europe behind the United States. Intangible assets and advanced technologies have contributed about three-quarters of a percentage point annually to US labour productivity growth, compared to around half a point in the European Union. The IMF also highlights the regulatory, fiscal, and legal fragmentation of the single market and the lack of integration of capital markets, which means that part of European savings ends up financing projects in the United States.
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