The next president of the Spanish Government will find themselves with a reduced margin of action due to international geopolitical and economic factors, according to an analysis published by El Confidencial. The disappearance of the Next Generation EU funds and the aging population will weigh down the State's investment capacity.
The next occupant of Moncloa, whoever wins the elections on 29 November, will have to manage the Spanish economy in a context of tightening global economic space. This is noted in an analysis by El Confidencial, which points out that governments have less and less room for manoeuvre due to the trade policy of the United States, persistent inflation in imported goods such as hydrocarbons, and a growing geopolitical realignment.
In addition, the Next Generation EU funds are now history, which reduces the State's investment capacity. The aging population also affects public finances due to increased spending on healthcare, dependency, and social services. The German Chancellor, Merz, has already announced a review of the welfare state.
On the international stage, Trump has two years left in the White House, half of what the next Spanish legislature could last if the planned schedule is followed. This means that the next president of the Government will spend half of their term alongside the current unpredictable U.S. Administration. Although it is unknown who will come after Trump, his departure will affect issues such as military spending or the purchasing policy committed by European governments last August.
"European right-wing parties have committed to reaching 5% of GDP in military spending"
The European right, which holds a majority in Strasbourg, has committed to reaching 5% of GDP in military spending, something that Sánchez does not agree with. If Feijóo governs, he will have to decide whether to change Spain's position. Furthermore, the electoral shift to the right has consolidated, as shown by the recent elections in Germany, and the 2027 French presidential elections could boost the far-right if Le Pen's party wins.
The far-right has the backing of the White House, which in its latest National Security Strategy has expressed its intention to "correct" Europe's political trajectory by supporting patriotic parties. This could put traditional centre-right parties in a difficult position.
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