Repsol consolidates itself as the most bullish stock in the Ibex 35 with an increase of nearly 85% so far this year, driven by the rising price of oil, which has surged by 70% in 2026. The oil company is trading 4.6% below its all-time high and is set to present its third-quarter results on October 29.
The oil company Repsol remains among the strongest stocks in the Ibex 35 with oil at $103 per barrel, a level that boosts cash generation and supports the index's largest appreciation this year, according to merca2.es.
The company has accumulated an increase of nearly 85% in 2026, almost double that of ArcelorMittal, the next most notable stock in the index. The driving force behind the rally is the rising price of oil, which has increased by 70% this year amidst a backdrop marked by the war in Iran and threats to energy supply.
This rally led Repsol to hit all-time highs on September 24, when it reached €31.54 per share. Today it is trading 4.6% below that level, indicating that maintaining the pace after such a surge will become increasingly challenging.
The market is already beginning to feel the strain. The potential for appreciation against the consensus price target has reduced to 2.2%, even after upward revisions of estimates. In fact, Repsol is the company in the index that has raised its price target the most in the last three months, with a 5% improvement.
An 85% rally supported by oil that is 70% more expensive leaves little room for surprises: the ball is now in the court of the results.
While awaiting those figures, the stock found new support this week, resulting in a 5% increase on Thursday. The catalyst was the trading statement for the third quarter, published on Tuesday after the market closed.
The document confirmed a preliminary production of 574,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a 4.2% increase compared to a year earlier. However, the most striking figure came from the refining margin in Spain, which reached $36.2 per barrel, four times the level of the same period in 2025 and 159% higher than the previous quarter.
Most analysts received the data with mixed opinions. Barclays and Jefferies raised their profit expectations by between 2% and 5%, while RBC anticipated a deterioration in refining margins in October. At Renta 4, analyst Pablo Fernández de Mosteyrín emphasized that these historic margins, along with high oil prices, should triple the adjusted net profit for the quarter compared to a year earlier.
The expert added the possibility that Repsol may announce a new share buyback program of around €900 million during the results presentation. This expectation, he argues, should help sustain the stock price, which will continue to move in line with Brent and distillates.
It is wise to view the sector's precedent with caution. In previous cycles of rising oil prices, integrated oil companies have seen the market anticipate expected profits long before they appeared on the income statement, leaving little room for upward movement after the peak of the barrel. Repsol is not exempt from this logic: the consensus has already revised its estimates and is now looking for signals to confirm that the energy cycle has room to run.
The sensitivity of the business is notable. According to Renta 4's calculations, each $10 per barrel increase raises operating income by about €360 million and operating cash flow by €290 million, keeping other factors constant.
This lever explains both the rally and its fragility: if Brent corrects, the effect reverses with equal intensity. Compared to peers, the valuation already incorporates much of the bullish scenario. Other European energy companies are trading at discounts that reflect more moderate expectations about oil, and the market itself is beginning to discount that good news is largely priced in.
For Repsol to maintain its leadership in the Ibex 35, it will not be enough for oil to stay above $100. Refining and share buybacks will need to provide the fuel that the barrel alone can no longer deliver.
Investors will closely monitor the information the company sends to the CNMV alongside its results, particularly the details of the share buyback program, the lever that can support the stock when oil stops rising.
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