BBVA places Navarra below Spain in 2026 and above in 2027, with rural tourism, car exports, and European demand as growth drivers.
The Navarrese economy will grow by 2% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, according to forecasts from BBVA reported by Diario de Navarra. These figures are more optimistic than those from Laboral Kutxa, which estimates 1.9% and 1.7%, and those from the regional government, which predicts 1.9% and 2%.
The change in position relative to Spain is notable. In 2026, Navarra is below the national average, which will grow by 2.6%, while in 2027 it surpasses it with 2.1%. In the coming year, the regional community is only above Cantabria and La Rioja, with 1.9%, and in 2027 it shares the top spot with the Basque Country.
The report was presented in Pamplona by Miguel Cardoso, chief economist for Spain at BBVA Research, alongside Marta Alonso, director of the Northern Territorial division of the bank. Cardoso attributes the shift to tourism: "Navarra has the capacity to absorb people displaced by higher prices due to congestion in other areas."
According to the analysis, the automotive sector is beginning to recover vehicle exports after declines in 2025, and demand from the European economy, Navarra's main client, will boost foreign sales. In the labour market, BBVA forecasts nearly 9,000 jobs between 2026 and 2027 and an unemployment rate of 6.8% in 2027, down from the current 8.07%.
The bank believes that increased defence spending opens up opportunities for Navarra's business fabric. Only 0.1% of companies in the region are engaged in arms manufacturing, but up to 16% could benefit, especially those in engineering, technology, metallurgy, textiles, and digital security.
Regarding housing, Cardoso warns of the potential effects of capping rental prices: "This can lead to unintended consequences. It results in reduced investment in housing construction." Between 2021 and 2025, just over 16,000 homes were created and around 10,000 homes were completed, and the study forecasts around 2,600 homes to be completed in both 2026 and 2027.
The report also estimates that of the 5,600 foreigners registered in Navarra between March and August, about 3,400 did so through the extraordinary regularisation process. Finally, BBVA calculates that nearly 23% of employed Navarrese will reach retirement age by 2040, meaning the working-age population could begin to decline after 2032.
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