The Valencian Community will grow by 2.9% in 2026, the highest forecast among autonomous communities according to BBVA Research. However, in 2027, it will be one of the slowest advancing.
According to Valencia Plaza, the research service of BBVA Research predicts that the Valencian Community will record a GDP growth of 2.9% in 2026, the highest figure in Spain alongside Madrid, Andalusia, and Murcia, which will also rise to 2.8%.
The entity has revised its forecast for Spain upwards by two tenths this year, to 2.6%. The growth will be supported by private consumption, job creation, and service exports, both tourist and non-tourist. For 2027, it maintains its national estimate at 2.1%.
In the case of Valencia, the aid for reconstruction after the dana will continue to boost activity this year. However, the reduction of that impulse will slow growth in 2027, when the Community will drop to 1.8%, like Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura, the regions with the lowest expected advances.
Behind the Community, Castilla-La Mancha will grow by 2.7% in 2026, above the average. Catalonia and Aragon will grow by 2.6%, Castilla y León by 2.5%, and Balearic Islands by 2.4%. At the lower end are Asturias and La Rioja, with 1.9%, and Navarra, with 2%.
In 2027, regional leadership will change hands. Basque Country and Navarra will lead growth with 2.4%, followed by Catalonia and Galicia, with 2.3%.
In terms of employment, BBVA Research estimates that the number of employed people in Spain, measured by the Active Population Survey (EPA), will grow by 2.4% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. Murcia will lead job creation this year with 4.1%, followed by the Valencian Community, with 3.4%.
The forecast warns of risks such as rising energy costs, higher inflation, and interest rates above expectations. Additionally, the end of the Recovery and Resilience Mechanism on 31 December 2026 could limit investment.
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