A document from the Institute of Economics of Barcelona links exposure to AI with higher registered unemployment in 502 occupations. Programmers top the risk ranking.
For every additional ten points of exposure to AI, unemployment in a profession rises by 1.2%. This is stated in a working paper from the Institute of Economics of Barcelona (IEB), from the University of Barcelona, which cross-referenced 502 occupations with data from SEPE between January 2021 and March 2026.
The information, reported by ecosistemastartup.com, indicates that in the 25 months following the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, the percentage remained at that 1.2%. When AI spread in companies, the figure rose to 1.7%. The authors warn that this second figure is imprecise and serves as a trend reference, not as a statistical data point.
The work is authored by Diego González-González, Nicolás González-Pampillón, Héctor Jiménez Portilla, and Javier Vázquez-Grenno.
To measure exposure, the team used the Anthropic metric, which analyses the actual use of Claude in each position. It measures what is already delegated to AI, not what the technology could theoretically do.
The ranking is led by programmers, with 75% of their tasks already covered by AI. They are followed by data entry clerks, sales agents, and financial analysts. Software and multimedia analysts and designers also feature among the ten profiles with the highest risk.
More than 40% of those employed with higher education work in high-exposure occupations, compared to around 15% of those with secondary education or less. The pressure falls on office and white-collar jobs.
Employment in these occupations does not decline. A report from BBVA Research and Fedea found that it grows above the average. The IEB study suggests that fewer people are not being hired, but more registered unemployed are accumulating. The authors do not explain whether this is due to more entries into unemployment or longer waits to find work.
The effect is greater among those starting out. Researchers from Stanford found that employment for those aged 22 to 25 in exposed occupations is 19% below expectations, mainly due to fewer hires and not more layoffs. In Spain, unemployment rises more among employees aged 30 to 39, by up to 3.4% for every ten points of exposure.
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