Tax revenue in September grew by 3.7% year-on-year, reaching 21.3 trillion, but VAT has accumulated eleven months of decline and without withholdings, income would drop by 1.8%.
Tax revenue in September reached 21.3 trillion, a 3.7% increase in real terms compared to the same month last year, according to data released by the tax authority, ARCA. However, the positive result hides two distortions that require cautious interpretation: VAT has fallen again and export withholdings surged due to an exceptionally low comparison base.
VAT, one of the main indicators of economic activity, recorded a real year-on-year decline of 5.8% in September and has now seen eleven consecutive months of declines since November 2025. The information, reported by elciudadanoweb.com, details that the collapse is explained by the disparate behaviour of its two components: VAT DGA, linked to imports, plummeted by 18.4%, while VAT DGI, associated with the domestic market, rose by 1.7%.
VAT DGA accounts for around 35% of total tax revenue and its evolution depends on physical imports. VAT DGI, which explains the remaining 65%, is more closely linked to domestic consumption. Despite the uptick in September, VAT DGI also accumulated real declines in almost all the months analysed, with the exception of July, meaning the positive figure does not reverse the trend.
The other factor that distorts the comparison is export withholdings, which grew by 99.2% year-on-year. This jump does not reflect a real increase in activity, but rather that in September 2025, the then Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, temporarily reduced export duties to zero for certain agricultural products. The measure, adopted amid currency tensions and weeks before the legislative elections, aimed to accelerate the liquidation of the harvest and the influx of dollars.
That decision allowed producers to liquidate around USD 7 billion in just three days, but left public coffers with virtually no income from withholdings during that month. A year later, in September 2026, the agro-export sector liquidated USD 3.228 billion and contributed 1.12 trillion from export rights, compared to the almost negligible income of the previous year.
The impact of withholdings on total revenue is decisive. If taxes linked to exports are excluded, the rest of the tax resources show a real decline of 1.8%.
The Income Tax also distorts the comparison, in this case due to a change in the calendar. Its nominal revenue grew by 63.3%, but last year the payment of the balance and the submission of the tax return were due in June, while this year, with the new simplified regime, they were moved to July, with an extension until October 13. Income tax represents about 22% of total revenue, so any variation in payment dates alters the monthly result.
If, in addition to withholdings, Income Tax is excluded from the calculation, the rest of the taxes show a real decline of 3% year-on-year.
Among the taxes that did show improvement is the Fuel Tax, with a real increase of 15.6% in September. This increase is due to the adjustment of rates and higher consumption, although its relative weight in the total is less than that of VAT or Income Tax.
The next relevant data will be the publication of October's revenue, expected in the first days of November, when it will be possible to see if VAT breaks its negative streak or if the trend consolidates.
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