The Bank of Spain warns that the capacity to build new homes is "lower than expected" and estimates that it will take up to three years to construct the million homes that are lacking. The shortage could begin to be addressed in 2028.
The Bank of Spain has warned that the market's capacity to build new homes is "lower than expected" and estimates that it will take up to three years to construct the million homes that, according to its estimates, are lacking in Spain. The general director of Economics at the institution, David López, places 2028 as the time when the shortage could begin to be resolved, as reported by elnacional.cat.
In its latest macroeconomic projections report, the Bank of Spain notes that "residential investment is maintaining a more moderate growth than previously anticipated due to the persistence of restrictions that limit the expected dynamism." The institution attributes this moderation to a lack of labour, rising costs, and difficulties in urban development.
The report confirms that during 2026, the pace of execution of building permits is "slower" and that the completion rate of new homes has decreased. Among the specific problems, the Bank of Spain mentions difficulties in accessing and connecting to the electricity grid, which limit new developments.
"The increase in the number of homes started since 2024 and the evolution of new bank financing for construction and real estate promotion activities would point to a higher dynamism in residential investment in 2027. However, this future evolution is conditioned by the persistence of structural restrictions," warns the institution.
Data from the Bank of Spain shows that in June 2026, there were about 130,000 free market homes under construction (twelve-month moving average), a figure that has grown steadily. In contrast, the number of finished flats and houses remains stable below 90,000 units.
The institution conditions the improvement of residential investment in 2027 on the unlocking of structural factors that hinder promotion. The official forecast indicates that it will not be until 2028 that the market begins to absorb the deficit of a million homes.
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