The Spanish risk premium stands at around 60 basis points, below that of France, which exceeds 140, and Italy. The Spanish ten-year bond reaches 4.138%, the highest since 2013.
The eurozone sovereign debt market shows an unusual situation: Spain presents a risk premium of around 60 basis points, lower than that of France and Italy. The Spanish differential against Germany was recently at 56.5 points, according to data released and collected by lideractual.es.
The yield on the Spanish ten-year bond stood at 4.138% this Thursday, the highest level since 2013, while the Bund German bond at the same term offered 3.56%. The risk premium measures the extra cost the market demands from Spain compared to Germany, and this extra cost is now lower than that demanded from France or Italy.
France has seen its risk premium exceed 140 basis points and the yield on its ten-year bond nearing 5%. The French public deficit is projected to be 5.4% of GDP in 2026, three-tenths higher than the previous year, with the aim of reducing it to 5% in 2027. The French differential against Germany reached 132.86 points on October 1 and then surpassed 140, reflecting the rapid widening of the gap.
Italy faces a different problem: its public deficit is expected to drop from 3.1% of GDP in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, according to European Commission forecasts, but its public debt will increase from 137.1% of GDP in 2025 to 138.5% in 2026 and 139.2% in 2027. Italian growth will be weak, with GDP advancing by 0.5% this year and 0.6% next year.
The European Central Bank has the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), which allows it to buy bonds when a country suffers an
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