The Union of Professionals and Self-Employed Workers estimates that around 224,000 self-employed workers could retire between 2026 and 2028. This figure represents 6.4% of the current members of the Special Regime for Self-Employed Workers (RETA).
According to iberoeconomia.es, the Union of Professionals and Self-Employed Workers (UPTA) estimates that approximately 224,000 self-employed workers could retire between 2026 and 2028, equivalent to 6.4% of the current members of the Special Regime for Self-Employed Workers (RETA). The organization warns that this increase may hinder others from continuing businesses with decades of activity, especially in rural municipalities, where the closure of a shop, workshop, or bar reduces the services available to residents.
This is a projection by UPTA based on the recent evolution of pension registrations, not confirmed retirements. Statistics from the Social Security show that new retirements in the RETA are increasing year by year: 55,563 in 2023, 60,583 in 2024, and 64,267 in 2025, which is 8,704 more than in 2023, a 15.7% increase over two years.
With this trend, UPTA estimates 69,100 new retirements in 2026, 74,300 in 2027, and nearly 80,000 in 2028. The figure of 224,000 is, therefore, a sum of estimates and not a count of workers who have already requested their retirement.
The most exposed sectors are small local businesses, such as bakeries, bars and restaurants, workshops and specialized trades, and small service companies. When the owner retires and no one is prepared to take over the business, it may close even if it has regular customers.
In towns, the consequences go beyond employment: residents may have to travel to other municipalities to shop or hire specialized services. UPTA emphasizes that succession also requires funding, training, and viable economic conditions, although not all closures are due to a lack of successors, as profitability, operating costs, and local demand also play a role.
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