The IMF forecasts Spain's real per capita GDP to grow 1.5% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, below the Eurozone (1.1%) and Germany (1.3%). The aggregate grows more, but the distribution per inhabitant stagnates.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upwards the growth of the Spanish economy for 2026 to 2.5%, four-tenths higher than its previous forecast. However, the real per capita GDP, the indicator that measures production per inhabitant, will follow a much more modest path: 1.5% in 2026 and barely 0.8% in 2027, according to page 44 of the World Economic Outlook report, as noted by elEconomista.es.
This figure for 2027 falls below the 1.1% forecast for the Eurozone as a whole and the 1.3% estimated for Germany. The contrast with the aggregate growth is notable: Spain leads European forecasts, but the advance per inhabitant is reduced to less than half in just two years.
The reason lies in the growth model. The Spanish economy is increasing its production mainly by incorporating more workers, rather than through productivity improvements. In 2024, according to the INE, Spain recorded a positive net migration balance of 626,268 people, after exceeding 640,000 in 2023. This increase in the employed population raises the total GDP, but when divided by the number of inhabitants, much of the effect is diluted.
"The economy of Spain is growing, but I do not live better"
The real per capita GDP is the indicator that best approximates the evolution of household prosperity. Its stagnation in 2027, at 0.8%, contrasts with the strength of the aggregate GDP and points to extensive growth, based on more employment, rather than intensive growth, based on more productivity.
The IMF report also reflects that Spanish growth will surpass that of the United States and triple that of France and Italy in 2026. For 2027, the trend remains in the aggregate, but Spanish per capita GDP lags behind its European partners.
The next update of IMF forecasts is scheduled for April 2027, when the new World Economic Outlook will be published.
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