52% of experts, business leaders, and executives surveyed in the latest Economic and Business Consensus by PwC believe that prices will enter a phase of structurally higher inflation. The survey places inflation in Spain at 5%.
According to El Economista, 52% of the experts, business leaders, and executives consulted by PwC consider that the rise in prices in Spain marks the beginning of a structurally higher inflation that will persist over time and that the European Central Bank (ECB) will have difficulties in curbing. This data comes from the Economic and Business Consensus for the fourth quarter of 2026, compiled from 91 responses collected between October 4 and 24.
The same percentage of participants, 52%, expect inflation to remain persistent in 2027 and that interest rates will remain high for longer, in case a new round of geopolitical tensions occurs. 25% interprets the current rise as a temporary episode linked to the energy impact of the conflict in the Middle East, while 15% sees it as a manageable risk if the ECB acts decisively.
Regarding the factors that will put the most pressure on prices in the coming months, 63% point to the combination of energy, food, and services.
On monetary policy, 76% consider the increase in the ECB's deposit facility to 2.5% in September to be appropriate, although some believe it came too late. 15% think that the measure penalises growth without correcting the supply disruption caused by the conflict in Iran. For the coming months, 86% anticipate further interest rate hikes until the end of the year, depending on the evolution of inflation.
The report places inflation in Spain at 5%, compared to 3.8% in the eurozone. 47% of experts attribute this difference to the dynamism of domestic demand and tourism.
For families, 45% believe that if prices exceed nominal wages for an extended period, the impact will be uneven depending on income. 39% foresee a loss of purchasing power that will force adjustments in consumption and savings.
Regarding wages, 39% expect remuneration to rise below prices. 31% warn of second-round effects on costs and prices in some sectors, and 27% anticipate an uneven impact depending on each worker's negotiating power, productivity, and collective agreements.
The consumption forecast worsens: the proportion of participants expecting a decline in consumption rises from 24% to 42% compared to the previous consensus, while those anticipating stability drop from 65% to 53%. 67% rate the situation of families in terms of savings, income, and debt as average.
The consensus anticipates a moderate slowdown in the Spanish economy, with growth of 2.4% in 2026 and around 2% in 2027. 41% cite the lack of workers as one of the main obstacles to increasing activity, although there is demand and installed capacity to produce more.
The assessment of the situation of companies also declines: 60% consider it good, down from 72% at the beginning of the year. 76% expect it to remain unchanged in the next quarter.
PwC has been producing this quarterly indicator since 1999 based on a panel of about 450 experts, business leaders, and executives. In this edition, the conclusions come solely from the 91 responses received during the consultation period.
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