The Vietnamese stock market enters the fourth quarter of 2026 with caution, weighed down by selling pressure and a lack of cash flow. Experts indicate that the evolution of interest rates, foreign capital flows, and third-quarter corporate results will be decisive.
The Vietnamese stock market has begun the fourth quarter of 2026 with a cautious tone, following a period of strong volatility. Selling pressure persists in numerous sectors, and cash flow shows no clear improvement, according to vietnam.vn.
In this context, analysts point to three key factors for the last months of the year: the trajectory of interest rates, the evolution of foreign capital, and the publication of corporate results for the third quarter.
Nguyen The Minh, director of Investment Banking at An Binh Securities Joint Stock Company (ABS), believes that the positive impact of the market's rating upgrade has already faded. According to his analysis, many investors expected the announcement to attract new capital and boost the market upwards, but that effect was concentrated in the initial phase and is now losing strength.
“Modernisation only attracts new capital, while old capital tends to withdraw.”
Minh explains that the outflow of foreign capital is mainly due to interest rates. Funds that have been invested in Vietnam for a longer time adopt a defensive stance when rates rise and continue to withdraw until the trend reverses. New flows from the modernisation process require time and unfold in four phases, so, at the current stage, they do not offset the net selling pressure from existing foreign capital.
The ABS executive proposes two scenarios for the VN index. If interest rates remain stable or decrease slightly, the index could fluctuate between 1,700 and 1,900 points and maintain a sideways movement. In that case, the market favours stock selection over a broad-based rise. If rates fall sharply, the index could exceed 1,900 points and approach 2,000.
Minh leans towards the first scenario: stable rates until the end of the year and a VN index moving between 1,700 and 1,900 points. Only a larger-than-expected rate cut would open a more positive year-end.
From Kafi Securities Joint Stock Company, they note that the market still has room for growth despite the uncertainty. Geopolitical risks, tariff policies, global interest rate levels, and currency pressures may continue to generate short-term volatility, but much of the impact from the first half is already reflected in prices, and valuations have become more reasonable after the adjustment period.
Kafi attributes the dynamism of the last quarter to internal factors: the revaluation process, the speed of public investment disbursement, measures to eliminate banking liquidity bottlenecks, and consumer support policies. These levers could expand the growth margin of profits and cash flow.
Opportunities, however, will remain selective. The firm advises focusing on companies with solid financial foundations, clear profit prospects, and attractive valuations.
On the global macroeconomic front, Kafi warns that the risks of the fourth quarter do not concentrate on a single event but rather on the combination of geopolitics, tariffs, and interest rate hikes. Although tensions in the Middle East may ease after reaching their peak, energy, transport, and insurance prices are likely to remain high. Measures taken by the United States under Article 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and the more restrictive stance of central banks will continue to pressure trade, exchange rates, and capital flows.
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