The fear of losing money and reactions to shocks can influence decisions as much as economic data. This was stated by the speakers at an event held in Palma.
Geopolitical risks concern attendees more than inflation or recession. This is evident from the first live survey of the event Decisions that create value. Investing by understanding your emotions, organised by BBVA and Diario de Mallorca on Wednesday, October 21, at the Sala Aljub of Es Baluard in Palma.
Journalist Mar Ferragut moderated the meeting, which was opened by Susana Llombart, regional director of BBVA in the Balearics. Llombart noted that "in an environment like the current one, making decisions is not easy".
Axel Cardin, head of Analysis and Strategy of Global Wealth at BBVA in Spain, identified the tension in the Strait of Hormuz as the main pressure point. He explained that the rising cost of oil and refined fuels affects supply chains, inflation, and financial markets.
Cardin considered the risk of recession to be limited, although he warned of possible shocks in the Middle East. In light of immediate uncertainty, he recommended caution, while keeping an eye on long-term growth.
"We do not see this investment cycle as something lasting a year, but as a multi-year cycle that is here to stay"
According to Cardin, fixed income now offers more attractive entry points following changes in interest rate expectations and a strong rebound in sovereign yields. In equities, he identified a multi-year cycle linked to artificial intelligence, infrastructure, and the strengthening of European industry, although he cautioned that volatility does not disappear.
José Luis Segimón, Global Head of Private Markets at BBVA Asset Management, spoke about investments in unlisted companies. He reminded attendees that financing a business or participating in a real estate project are formulas predating the stock market, and that these assets range from emerging companies to large firms, not without risks.
"Private markets are the most traditional there are. It is more traditional to invest in projects than in the stock market"
Another survey from the event reflected interest in private markets. 48% of attendees chose them as the assets with the best prospects for the remainder of the year, compared to 33% who pointed to the stock market and 19% who opted for fixed income. Segimón explained that private debt offers agreed-upon interest rates and that investing in equity allows participation in business growth, although its lower liquidity requires keeping money invested for years.
Ximo Raga, director of Private Banking and UHN Wealth in the Eastern Territorial of BBVA, highlighted the resilience of the Spanish economy, supported by employment and domestic demand. For the Balearics, the bank forecasts GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, and warned of a "less buoyant" tourist season, with fewer overnight stays and lower consumption.
"The important thing is for the private banker to know their client, their needs, and what they expect from the bank"
Raga recalled that BBVA Private Banking and UHN Wealth has surpassed 200,000 clients in Spain earlier than expected, with nearly 2,400 in the Balearics and more than 700 private bankers across the country.
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