The Galician unemployment rate will fall below 7% in 2029, according to the Galician Institute of Statistics, which also forecasts that GDP will moderate to 1.6% between 2028 and 2030.
The Galician Institute of Statistics (IGE) predicts that the gross domestic product of Galicia will advance by 2.3% in 2026, a figure that will moderate to 1.6% in 2028 and will remain at that level in 2029 and 2030. This is reported by galiciae.com, which details the latest macroeconomic scenario published by the regional statistical agency.
The IGE anticipates a progressive loss of dynamism in Galician activity, in line with the forecast for the whole of Spain. The projections depend, according to the agency itself, on possible external factors such as new military conflicts or extraordinary situations.
Despite the slowdown, the agency estimates a sustained reduction in unemployment. The unemployment rate would decrease from the 8% predicted for this year to 7.7% in 2027, 7.3% in 2028, and 7% in 2029, closing 2030 at 6.8%. Compared to the 11% in 2022, the improvement would be more than one point in four years.
Employment, measured in full-time equivalent positions, would grow by 1% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027, but its pace would fall to 0.3% in 2030. Gross capital formation, which includes machinery, equipment, and construction, would decrease from the 3.2% predicted for 2026 to 1.8% in 2030.
The Galician forecasts are below the national figures. The Bank of Spain places the growth of the Spanish GDP at 2.6% this year and 2.2% in 2027, three tenths above the IGE's estimates for both years.
In contrast, business confidence in Galicia rose by 0.5% in the fourth quarter, reaching 136.8 points, while in Spain it fell by 1.8%, down to 135.7 points, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE). Galicia ranks ninth among the 17 autonomous communities, although it remains 1.9% below a year ago.
The balance of business expectations in Galicia stands at 9.1 points, compared to 12.1 at the end of 2025, and the situation balance decreased from 17.9 to 12.8 points. Both indicators remain in positive territory.
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