The European Central Bank will meet on October 29 and, barring surprises, will keep rates unchanged. Markets are already pricing in a hike in December.
According to articulo14.es, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its monetary policy meeting on October 28 and 29 with the expectation of keeping its interest rates unchanged. The decision will be announced on Thursday, October 29 at 14:15, and the president, Christine Lagarde, will address the media at 14:45.
Analysts expect the deposit facility rate to remain at 2.50 %. The main refinancing operations rate, at 2.65 %, and the marginal lending facility rate, at 2.90 %, are also not expected to change.
The institution raised rates by 25 basis points on September 10 to curb further inflationary pressures, particularly due to rising energy costs stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. It now seems to be opting for a pause to assess the effects of that increase, although the tightening cycle is not considered over.
According to an analysis by CaixaBank Research, markets are assigning a probability close to 90 % to a new increase of 25 basis points in December. In that case, the deposit rate would rise from 2.50 % to 2.75 %. BBVA Research also anticipates an increase towards the end of the year if energy tensions persist.
Inflation in the eurozone has accelerated again. According to final data from Eurostat, published on October 16, the year-on-year index reached 3.8 % in September, up from 3.2 % in August, far from the 2 % target.
By components, energy rose by 18.8 % year-on-year (up from 14.3 % in August), services by 3.2 %, and food, alcohol, and tobacco by 1.4 %.
The ECB's own projections from September place average inflation at 3 % in 2026, 2.5 % in 2027, and 2.1 % in 2028. Eurozone growth is estimated at 0.9 % this year, 1.4 % in 2027, and 1.5 % in 2028.
For variable-rate mortgages, the euribor does not automatically depend on official rates, but rather on market expectations. According to the Bank of Spain, the indicator closed September at 3.247 %, compared to 2.172 % a year earlier.
The ECB's decision to keep rates this week does not guarantee immediate relief. Borrowers reviewing their loans with the latest euribor values may see their payments increase, depending on their contract terms, and if the market anticipates a hike in December, the indicator could reflect that before the institution announces it.
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