BBVA Research estimates that the rising costs of oil and gas will reduce Spain's GDP by between 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points until the end of 2027 and will add between 0.8 and 0.9 points to inflation. The research service raises the growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6% and lowers that for 2027 to 2.1%.
The rising costs of oil and gas will take a toll on Spanish growth. A report from BBVA Research estimates that the energy crisis will cut GDP growth by between 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points until the end of 2027, and will add between 0.8 and 0.9 points to inflation, as published by La Provincia.
The research service places Spanish inflation at 3.6% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. For this year, BBVA Research improves its growth forecast to 2.6%, up from the 2.4% it projected in June, due to the strength of domestic demand and the boost from employment and service exports.
The picture changes in 2027. Growth will moderate to 2.1%, weighed down by energy costs and tightening financial conditions. The report emphasizes that the projected growth for 2026 is 0.5 points above the average of the last 30 years.
Household consumption will maintain a high pace, although it will lose momentum due to rising prices and interest rates. BBVA Research forecasts growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, with employment rising by 2.4% this year and 2% next year. The lower savings rate of families and the revaluation of real estate assets will support private spending.
Public administration spending will continue to drive domestic demand, with increases of 2.5% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027. BBVA Research believes that fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, which limits deficit reduction: it projects the deficit at 2.7% of GDP this year and 2.4% next year.
The external sector shows two speeds. Goods exports are expected to fall by 0.6% in 2026 due to rising costs and a lack of dynamism in the European economy, although they will rebound by 2.1% in 2027. Services are projected to grow by 6.7% this year and 4.2% next year: since the end of 2019, they have accumulated an increase of nearly 54% and have established themselves as one of the engines of the external sector.
The report also highlights the risks surrounding the scenario: geopolitical conflicts, protectionism, climate phenomena, and an aging population. A rise in inflation could lead central banks to tighten their monetary policy and generate tensions in debt markets. On the positive side, investment in artificial intelligence could boost productivity, and efficiency improvements could help contain prices.
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