House prices in Spain have accumulated a year-on-year increase of between 10% and 15%, according to the INE, but experts dismiss the possibility of a bubble like that of 2008. Transactions have fallen by 5.1% and the available stock has decreased by 8.5%.
The Spanish real estate market is experiencing a moment of rising prices and fewer transactions. Housing costs between 10% and 15% more than a year ago, according to the INE, while in July 61,417 transactions were completed, a 5.1% decrease year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive decline. The College of Registrars raises that decline to 7.7% using its own methodology, as reported by larazon.es.
The available supply is also tightening: the stock of homes for sale has reduced by 8.5% in the first half of the year, which accelerates sales and supports prices. At the same time, mortgages now finance 75% of each transaction, the highest proportion recorded.
The comparison with 2008 does not hold up against the figures from the Bank of Spain. During the boom, the housing stock grew by 5.7 million in a decade, and many mortgages covered 100% of the price. Today, the bank finances an average of 69.7% of the appraised value, and the mortgage payment accounts for 23.5% of household income, below the 35% that the supervisor considers prudent.
In construction, the contrast is even greater: in 2025, 139,016 new construction permits were granted, compared to more than 600,000 annually during the boom. And in real terms, adjusting for inflation, housing costs 14.7% less than at its peak in 2008.
"Just because housing is expensive doesn't mean we're in a bubble. In a bubble, people buy to speculate, lending is more generous, and construction is excessive; today, the opposite is true: transactions are down, banks scrutinise every application, and what is lacking is houses, not buyers."
This is noted by Andrea Elegido, spokesperson for Studies and Communication at Wypo, who attributes the scarcity of supply to demographic factors: in 2025, 225,000 new households were created in Spain, while only about 92,000 homes were completed. CaixaBank Research estimates that the accumulated deficit since 2021 exceeds 730,000 homes.
This underlying diagnosis does not change, but the immediate context does. Uncertainty about the cost of money and the transfer of legislative debate to the Permanent Deputation adds pressure to the decision-making process for purchases. In a volatile scenario, the sector recommends carefully analysing each financial decision before taking the plunge.
For those considering buying, the practical data is that bank financing covers on average almost 70% of the appraised value, far from the 100% of two decades ago. The monthly payment, however, remains below the risk threshold of 35% of income, according to the Bank of Spain.
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