The General Council of Economists, BBVA Research, the Chamber of Commerce, and the OECD have raised their estimates for Spanish GDP to 2.5%-2.6% in 2026, although inflation and energy costs weigh on activity.
The Spanish economy will grow by 2.6% in 2026, according to updated forecasts from key organisations and analysts. The General Council of Economists has raised its estimate by one-tenth to 2.5%, while BBVA Research has revised its projection upwards by two-tenths to 2.6%, a figure that aligns with that of the Government and the OECD. The Chamber of Commerce of Spain has also improved its forecast by two-tenths to 2.5%, a percentage shared by the research services of Bankinter and Funcas.
These figures, reported by nuevaradio.org, indicate that Spain could achieve its fourth consecutive year as a growth engine of the European Union. Analysts attribute this resilience to the strength of private consumption, the dynamism of service exports, with tourism as the main component, and investment, although the latter has moderated compared to 2025 levels.
The labour market has helped sustain consumption: the hours effectively worked grew by 2.8% year-on-year and full-time positions increased by 2.2%, allowing the unemployment rate to fall below 10% in the second quarter of 2026, according to experts from the General Council of Economists.
The Chamber of Commerce estimates that domestic demand will contribute 2.9 percentage points to GDP growth in 2026, with household consumption increasing by 2.7% and investment growing by 4.5%.
The main risk for the Spanish economy is inflation, which in September closed with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% due to rising energy and fuel costs. The price of Brent has surpassed $100 after an increase of more than 50% so far this year. The Chamber of Commerce places the average inflation for 2026 at 3.2%, five-tenths above its previous estimate, and the core inflation at 2.8%.
"The longer the increase in energy costs lasts, the more intense the impact on economic activity will be," warn analysts from BBVA.
BBVA estimates that the rise in oil and gas prices could subtract between 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth and add between 0.8 and 0.9 points to inflation until the end of 2027. Their forecasts point to an inflation rate of 3.6% in 2026.
Another factor that could hinder activity is the slowdown in the external sector, caused by lower export growth. Analysts frame these forecasts within a global context of "moderate, fragile, and uneven" growth, with geopolitical tensions and more restrictive financial conditions in major Western economies.
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