Saturday, 24 October 2026

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Spain's GDP per capita will grow by 1.5% in 2026 despite immigration

Spain's GDP per capita is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, with an annual average of 1% from 2018 to 2027.

Álvaro Sáez Ferrer
Álvaro Sáez Ferrer
· 2 min read

Spain's GDP per capita is projected to advance by 1.5% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, according to forecasts cited by elDiario.es. Between 2018 and 2027, the annual average would be 1%, compared to 0.1% for the period 2008-2017.

Spain's GDP per capita will grow by 1.5% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, according to forecasts reported by elDiario.es. This information comes after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed that Spain will be the fastest-growing advanced economy in 2026, for the third consecutive year and surpassing the United States.

The total GDP of Spain is expected to grow between 2.5% and 2.6%, according to the observers cited. The difference with GDP per capita is explained by the increase in population, which shares the total growth among more inhabitants.

Economist Daniel Lacalle questioned this interpretation on the social media platform X and cited a "stagnant GDP per capita" in the IMF document. According to his screenshots, the forecast for 2027 places Spain below the eurozone average. Lacalle asked President Pedro Sánchez:

"Could you read the report you are citing?"

The forecasts in the table itself indicate solid growth for GDP per capita in the next two years, so Lacalle's argument does not hold up against this data.

Between 2008 and 2017, Spain's GDP per capita grew on average by 0.1% per year. For the period 2018-2027, the projection is for 1% annually, compared to 0.4% for Germany, 0.7% for France, 0.8% for Japan, 0.5% for the United Kingdom, and 0.6% for Canada.

Economist Alberto Nadal, economic advisor to the PP, defended in La Tribuna de Toledo that GDP grows because half a million people enter the workforce and consume each year. According to information from elDiario.es, this reasoning is the same as that held by Lacalle.

Álvaro Sáez Ferrer

Written by

Álvaro Sáez Ferrer

Redactor

Economista por ICADE y una de las pocas personas que disfruta leyendo la ley de presupuestos. Cafetero, padre a tiempo completo y azote de la letra pequeña; en Diario Empresas escribe de economía y fiscalidad.